Mobile Web Epiphany – The 7th Mass Media November 20, 2008
Posted by debbiepascoe in 7th mass media, mobile web, social networking, social networks, usability.Tags: 7th mass media, advertising, broadband, internet, iPhone, mobile web, Nokia, ringtones, smart phone, smartphone, social networking, social networks, Tomi Ahonen, Web 2.0
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When I set out to research information for an article about the Mobile Web, I had the mindset that Mobile Web was quite immature, that the challenges of getting content onto the mobile phone were many and not well addressed yet. And then I found Tomi Ahonen’s article from May 2008 on his blog “Communities Dominate Brands”. What an epiphany! He made me realize that my concept of mobile web was all wrong.
He likens the current concept of putting the “real internet” on the phone (Like the iPhone) to
- putting the real horse into our car
- the real symphony orchestra inside our radio
- like using your TV to listen to radio
It using a mobile phone to access the 6th mass media.
He’s not saying that there isn’t a market for the iPhone, rather that using the iPhone – or any smartphone – to access html-created websites is NOT the form factor or the utility of the mobile services business.
His article is jam-packed with information and anecdotes – here I’ve summarized a lot of the metrics he cites. It is not a substitute, though, for reading the complete article.
First some basic numbers, according to a recent presentation by Morgan Stanley’s Mary Meeker at the San Francisco Web 2.0 conference (see image below), there are currently 349MM Broadband users globally, and 3.3BN mobile users – 9 ½ times more mobile subscribers globally than broadband subscribers
Now, the summary of Tomi’s article (and a note of thanks for his permission to quote):
Mobile is The 7th Mass Media
- with Print the first – 500 years old,
- Recordings the second – around 100 years old,
- Cinema the third, – around 100 years old,
- Radio the fourth, – around 100 years old, took 38 years to get to 50MM people*
- TV the fifth and – around 50 years old, took 13 years to get to 50MM people*
- The Internet the sixth in this sequence -15 years old, took 4 years to get to 50MM* people
This year, 2008, will be the cross-over point when more users will access internet content (including WAP) via a mobile phone, than via any kind of PC/laptop.
- has already happened in advanced mobile-savvy countries Japan and South Korea,
- happening the mainstream countries like the UK
- and in developing countries like India and South Africa
On Nov. 4 Nokia announced a series of new devices and services designed extend the benefits of the Web to rural India, including crop information for farmers and mobile e-mail for people who don’t have access to a personal computer.
Today, the internet is worth 45 Billion dollars in revenues – three largest revenue types are
- advertising,
- adult entertainment and
- gambling
By contrast, mobile is worth $72Bn with adult entertainment, gambling and advertising on mobile – each worth about 2 Billion dollars, more or less. But of the $72Bn value of mobile content, there are several far bigger content types:
- Music on mobile is worth over 9 Billion dollars.
- Gaming is worth 5 Billion (Source Netsize Guide 2008).
- There are half a dozen content types already for mobile that have grown to be bigger than adult entertainment and gambling. (screen savers, Sudoku puzzles, personal services.
- In Japan, in 2006 text-based books sold directly to mobile phones totaled 82MM.
Mobile social networking was launched commercially in South Korea only in 2003;
- was worth 6 Billion dollars in 2007 (source Informa 2008) and
- had over 100 million paying users on mobile
Zero in 2003 – 6BN in 2007
At the end of 2007,
- 2.4 billion people – 74% of all mobile phone users – were active users of SMS text messaging
- 800 million active unique users of email
- <500 million active users of all kinds of IM Instant Messaging services
- In Finland interactive SMS text messaging already delivers more revenues to the TV broadcast industry than advertising or subscription income
- UK – 20% of the total viewing audience participates monthly in voting on reality TV shows via SMS
- Japan, 30% of TV viewers interact with TV content in all manner of ways via the mobile
With all this, I’m now convinced that the Mobile Web will not replace the PC-based web. It will cause a lot of disruption as organizations experiment and struggle and come to grips with whether and how they need a Mobile Web presence. The Mobile Web is all about connecting on a personal level with people. It’s about giving people what they want, not what you want them to have. It’s about engaging them on their terms, not yours.
Wow. Power to the people!
*The Emerging Digital Economy – http://www.amazon.com/Emerging-Digital-Economy-Dept-Commerce/dp/1892209160
Mobile web big bang April 7, 2008
Posted by debbiepascoe in ads and ad spending, metrics and measurement, mobile web, usability, web design, web standards.Tags: accessibility, analytics, cell phones, iPhone, mobile web, standards, W3C
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The mobile web noise is getting increasingly louder and the big bang is coming, as market conditions and influences converge. Several factors will contribute, and all of them are in motion and picking up speed. There’s:
- Abundance – the abundance of mobile devices and our resulting reliance on them
- Controlled cost – mobile content at a price that device owners control and are willing to pay
- Mobile content - whether it is localized information, games, or entertainment, the content has to be content that device owners want, need and can actually get to via their mobile device
- Success measurement – mobile devices are not PCs; the traffic measurement techniques that work on websites do not work on mobile devices; techniques suited to the environment are a must-have
Where does mobile advertising fit into this picture? Everywhere! The abundance of devices is driving advertisers’ desire to solve the puzzle. Apple’s introduction of the iPhone has kicked the device race into high gear. The mobile phones so popular today will be a mere curiosity a couple of years from now as people migrate to new devices with larger screens and better graphics capability. A study released earlier this year by Pew Research indicates that people now say they would have a harder time giving up their cell phone than their landline. For more mobile uptake stats, visit my December post Mobile web access -the next frontier is here. The numbers are compelling.
Device owners must be able to control the costs of their mobile service, and not have ads and associated charges forced on them. Many major carriers have recently announced unlimited plans – a welcome change that will benefit advertisers and device owners. Speaking at the CTIA Wireless show in late March 2008, Forrester Research analyst Charles Golvin credited iPhone as the catalyst for changing the way consumers think about mobile payment plans for voice and data services.
Mobile content is an interesting one. People either go in search of the information they need – pull, or they have information presented to them- push. For a content owner that has something of value to offer, its challenge is to create content that is accessible on a mobile device. While this requires different web development techniques, it is completely achievable today. Content owners don’t have to get permission from anybody to make their information available. They must, however, accept the reality that, for real success on the mobile web, their content must be created and optimized for mobile delivery and search indexing. And what will help them tremendously on this front? Site designers that understand the principles of designing accessible sites that meet W3C guidelines 
Bryson Munier has published an excellent paper (PDF), that describes challenges and gives specific suggestions about how to succeed now in the mobile market.
While site owners have complete control over creating effective mobile web content, that is not the case with their mobile advertising campaigns. Conducting a mobile advertising campaign means interacting with the telecom companies to secure approvals and coordinate delivery of the campaign – a painful and time-consuming exercise. Check out Mobile Marketing Fantasy Vs. Reality for an excellent summary of the current state of mobile marketing.
Mobile devices use operating systems and browsers custom-designed for the smaller environment. As a result, the success measurement methods used to track website visitor activity via PCs does not work for tracking activity from mobile devices. Several new companies that specialize in mobile access measurement have surfaced, including Amethon, Bango Analytics, GetMobile Analytics, and Mobilytics. Site owners planning to run mobile campaigns will want to/need to accurate track campaign results, and combine those results with their existing visitor data to get a unified picture of their marketing activities.
So, with all the bits converging, when will we see the big bang? Definitely not 2008. The device wars are beginning in earnest, and telecoms are creating rate plans people can live with, so those two bits will come on quickly. Content creation is only a hurdle to the degree that site owners try to pound a square peg in a round hole. Web-through-PC and web-through-mobile device are very different animals. If that premise is accepted as fact, the content battle can be won fairly quickly. The biggest hurdles are the technical ones -how to quickly and effectively deploy and measure the success of mobile content and ads. The telecoms stranglehold on the “trade routes” for pushed content adds a level of complexity, one that has to be solved. These technical issues will take a bit longer to sort out. I’m guessing 2 years. When we look around at this time in 2010, the mobile world will look very different.
Mobile web access – the next frontier is here December 2, 2007
Posted by debbiepascoe in mobile web, page load times, search, usability, web design.Tags: brands, broadband, local search, marketers, mobile web, usability, web design
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I just ran across a blog about mobile phone adoption that has some fascinating stats in it. The blog is written by Tomi Ahonen – here’s a link to two posts. Even though they were written a while ago, the information is still very relevant, probably even more relevant, an well worth the read.
Mobile the 7th Mass Media is to internet like TV is to radio
(Stats below come from this post.)
As web content migrates to the mobile internet
At the end of 2006, according to Informa’s Mobile Market Status 2007 , there were 2.7 billion mobile phone users
- three times as many mobile phones as personal computers(850 million)
- over a quarter of all internet access is already from mobile phones
- nearly twice as many mobile phones as TV sets (1.5 billion)
- twice as many people use messaging on a phone (SMS text messaging) as use e-mail on the web.
- more people are accessing the internet via mobile rather than PC in China, Japan and South Korea
By comparison with the number of mobile phones,
- there are 800 million registered automobiles
- 1.3 billion fixed landline phones
We have not even begun to know how internet access via mobile phones will impact site design. One thing’s for sure, though. It can not be avoided. The more consumer-oriented, and geographically relevant a company is (where is the closest one to me, how do I get there, what are their hours, do they have the merchandise/food/gas/service I need or want to purchase), the sooner it will become an issue.
Some pundits that cover this space are speculating that the PC will be obsolete in the next few years. I’m not ready to buy that, for a couple of simple reasons. One – real estate, and two – computing power. Mobile screens are not very big, and even if they get a bit bigger, they will never be big. If they were big, they would be….PCs. If I am on the go, having content that is relevant to being on the go is great. When I am stationary, I’d rather use a larger format, with more computing power that will enable me to see and do more things simultaneously. which leads to reason number two – the size of mobile phones will continue to limit computing and battery power. Yes it continues to improve; I’m just not buying the notion that mobile internet access will replace laptops.
The balance will continue to shift as more content is created for the mobile environment and as advertisers and marketers experiment with methods to reach the mobile market. As some point, they discover what they can do that mobile users will tolerate. Because some rate plans charge for texting and excess minutes, it will be interesting to watch this play out: will carriers change their rate plans to “all you can eat”? Will consumers revolt if they start receiving unsolicited text messages?
At some point, market equilibrium will be reached – some people will use one method or the other, some will use both.
For big consumer brands, ensuring that their information is formatted for mobile access is a no-brainer. A beautiful online “experience” complete with flash, ajax, beautiful graphics, etc- has a defined reach. Access to these sites increasingly requires broadband access. As the stats above show, mobile access has three times the reach. Brands that can create streamlined mobile-accessible, relevant content and applications will have a far greater chance of reaching their rank-and-file buyers.
