Mobile Web Epiphany – The 7th Mass Media November 20, 2008

When I set out to research information for an article about the Mobile Web, I had the mindset that Mobile Web was quite immature, that the challenges of getting content onto the mobile phone were many and not well addressed yet. And then I found Tomi Ahonen’s article from May 2008 on his blog “Communities Dominate Brands”. What an epiphany! He made me realize that my concept of mobile web was all wrong.

He likens the current concept of putting the “real internet” on the phone (Like the iPhone) to

• putting the real horse into our car
• the real symphony orchestra inside our radio
• like using your TV to listen to radio

It using a mobile phone to access the 6th mass media.

He’s not saying that there isn’t a market for the iPhone, rather that using the iPhone – or any smartphone – to access html-created websites is NOT the form factor or the utility of the mobile services business.

His article is jam-packed with information and anecdotes – here I’ve summarized a lot of the metrics he cites. It is not a substitute, though, for reading the complete article.

First some basic numbers, according to a recent presentation by Morgan Stanley’s Mary Meeker at the San Francisco Web 2.0 conference (see image below), there are currently 349MM Broadband users globally, and 3.3BN mobile users – 9 ½ times more mobile subscribers globally than broadband subscribers

Now, the summary of Tomi’s article (and a note of thanks for his permission to quote):

Mobile is The 7th Mass Media

• with Print the first – 500 years old,
• Recordings the second – around 100 years old,
• Cinema the third, – around 100 years old,
• Radio the fourth, – around 100 years old, took 38 years to get to 50MM people*
• TV the fifth and – around 50 years old, took 13 years to get to 50MM people*
• The Internet the sixth in this sequence -15 years old, took 4 years to get to 50MM* people

This year, 2008, will be the cross-over point when more users will access internet content (including WAP) via a mobile phone, than via any kind of PC/laptop.

• has already happened in advanced mobile-savvy countries Japan and South Korea,
• happening the mainstream countries like the UK
• and in developing countries like India and South Africa

On Nov. 4 Nokia announced a series of new devices and services designed extend the benefits of the Web to rural India, including crop information for farmers and mobile e-mail for people who don’t have access to a personal computer.

Today, the internet is worth 45 Billion dollars in revenues – three largest revenue types are

• advertising,
• adult entertainment and
• gambling

By contrast, mobile is worth $72Bn with adult entertainment, gambling and advertising on mobile – each worth about 2 Billion dollars, more or less. But of the $72Bn value of mobile content, there are several far bigger content types:

• Music on mobile is worth over 9 Billion dollars.
• Gaming is worth 5 Billion (Source Netsize Guide 2008).
• There are half a dozen content types already for mobile that have grown to be bigger than adult entertainment and gambling. (screen savers, Sudoku puzzles, personal services.
• In Japan, in 2006 text-based books sold directly to mobile phones totaled 82MM.

Mobile social networking was launched commercially in South Korea only in 2003;

• was worth 6 Billion dollars in 2007 (source Informa 2008) and
• had over 100 million paying users on mobile

Zero in 2003 – 6BN in 2007

At the end of 2007,

• 2.4 billion people – 74% of all mobile phone users – were active users of SMS text messaging
• 800 million active unique users of email
• <500 million active users of all kinds of IM Instant Messaging services
• In Finland interactive SMS text messaging already delivers more revenues to the TV broadcast industry than advertising or subscription income
• UK – 20% of the total viewing audience participates monthly in voting on reality TV shows via SMS
• Japan, 30% of TV viewers interact with TV content in all manner of ways via the mobile

With all this, I’m now convinced that the Mobile Web will not replace the PC-based web.  It will cause a lot of disruption as organizations experiment and struggle and come to grips with whether and how they need a Mobile Web presence. The Mobile Web is all about connecting on a personal level with people.  It’s about giving people what they want, not what you want them to have.  It’s about engaging them on their terms, not yours.

Wow. Power to the people!

*The Emerging Digital Economy – http://www.amazon.com/Emerging-Digital-Economy-Dept-Commerce/dp/1892209160